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There are three general categories of casino games: There's a risk to going it alone. Despite its simplicity (or perhaps because of it), the punto banco version of baccarat offers some of the lowest house advantage available in a casino. The player bet has a house advantage of 1.24%, and the banker bet (despite the 5% commission) has an advantage of 1.06%. The tie bet has a much higher house advantage of 14.44%, based on six decks in play. [1] Consider a flipping coin game with two players where each player having 50% chance of winning each flip. After a flip the loser transfers one penny to the winner. The game ends when one player has all the pennies. If the number of flips is infinite, the probability that the game will eventually end is 100%. If player one has n1 pennies and player two n2 pennies , the chances P1 and P2 that players one and two, respectively, will end penniless are: Mini-baccarat is essentially the same game, but played at a smaller table very similar to a blackjack table. A single dealer handles the entire game, including dealing the cards. The pace is usually much faster than the "big baccarat" version. Betting minimums and maximums are usually lower. In casinos outside of Las Vegas and Atlantic City, this is frequently the only version of baccarat that is offered. In December of 1999 I wrote the story below about Fred Marino suing Discover Card. In the wake of that lawsuit, last week Discover Card signed an agreement in California Superior court it will not operate merchant accounts with online casino companies that may do business with California residents. Since it is hard to tell if the customer is from California this may mean that players will not be able finance their online gambling with a Discover Card. Two-up Key: Other examples Mathematically, the probability is equal to one that gains will eventually equal losses and a gambler will return to his starting point; however, the expected number of times he has to play is infinite, and so is the expected amount of capital he will need! A similar argument shows that the popular doubling strategy (start with $1, if you lose, bet $2, then $4 etc., until you win) does not work; see St. Petersburg paradox. Situations like these are investigated in the mathematical theory of random walks. This and similar strategies either trade many small wins for a few huge losses (as in this case) or vice versa. With an infinite amount of working capital, one would come out ahead using this strategy; as it stands, one is better off betting a constant amount if only because it makes it easier to estimate how much one stands to lose in an hour or day of play. The basic meaning of gambler's ruin is a gambler's loss of the last of his bank of gambling money and consequent inability to continue gambling. "Gambler's ruin" is also sometimes used to refer to a final large losing bet placed in the hopes of winning back all the gambler has lost during a gambling session. The stakes are made afresh, and the game proceeds. If the banker has been the winner, he deals again. If otherwise, the cards are passed to the player next in order, who thereupon becomes banker in his turn. By adopting the strategy outlined in the book you virtually eliminate the house advantage, allowing you to play out the wager requirements, without losing the free bonuses. This is the fallacious step in the argument. If the coin is fair, then by definition the probability of tails must always be .5, never more (or less), and the probability of heads must always be .5, never less (or more). While a run of five heads is only 1 in 32 (0.03125), it is 1 in 32 before the coin is first tossed. After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they don't count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as four successive heads followed by one tails. Tails is no more likely. Each of the two possible outcomes has equal probability no matter how many times the coin has been flipped previously and no matter what the result. Reasoning that it is more likely that the next toss will be a tail than a head due to the past tosses is the fallacy. The fallacy is the idea that a run of luck in the past somehow influences the odds of a bet in the future. PokerPoker is a microcosm of all we admire and disdain about capitalism and democracy. It can be rough-hewn or polished, warm or cold, charitable and caring or hard and impersonal. It is fickle and elusive, but ultimately it is fair, and right, and just. - Lou Krieger Webmaster's Bonus Tip: There's a risk to going it alone. Does the method work?
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